How can monitoring ground deformation help predict volcanic eruptions?

Monitoring ground deformation can help predict volcanic eruptions by indicating changes in magma movement beneath the surface.

Volcanoes are not just simple cones of rock, but complex systems with magma chambers beneath the surface. These chambers fill and empty as magma rises and falls, causing the ground above to deform. By monitoring these changes in the Earth's surface, scientists can gain valuable insights into what's happening below, potentially predicting an impending eruption.

Ground deformation is typically monitored using a variety of geodetic techniques. These include Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and tiltmeters. GPS can provide precise measurements of ground movement over large areas, while InSAR uses satellite data to create detailed maps of ground deformation. Tiltmeters, on the other hand, measure the tilt or change in slope of the ground surface, which can indicate swelling or deflation of a magma chamber.

When magma rises towards the surface, it causes the ground to swell or inflate. This is often a precursor to an eruption, as the magma is pushing against the surface and may eventually break through. Conversely, if the ground is deflating, it could mean that magma is retreating back into the Earth, reducing the likelihood of an eruption. However, it's important to note that not all ground deformation leads to an eruption. Sometimes, magma can rise and then retreat without ever breaking the surface.

Monitoring ground deformation is a key part of volcano monitoring and eruption forecasting. It provides valuable data that, when combined with other monitoring techniques such as seismic activity and gas emissions, can help scientists to build a comprehensive picture of a volcano's behaviour. This can enable them to issue warnings and potentially save lives if an eruption is imminent.

In conclusion, while predicting volcanic eruptions is still a complex and imperfect science, monitoring ground deformation is a crucial tool in the geoscientist's toolkit. By providing an insight into the hidden workings of volcanoes, it can help to mitigate the devastating impacts of volcanic eruptions.