Can globalization decrease the likelihood of interstate conflicts?

Yes, globalization can decrease the likelihood of interstate conflicts by fostering economic interdependence and promoting cultural understanding.

Globalization, the process by which businesses or other organisations develop international influence or start operating on an international scale, can indeed decrease the likelihood of interstate conflicts. This is primarily due to two key factors: economic interdependence and cultural understanding.

Economic interdependence is a direct result of globalization. As countries become more interconnected through trade and investment, they become more reliant on each other for economic stability and growth. This interdependence can act as a deterrent for conflict. For instance, if two countries are major trading partners, a conflict between them could disrupt trade and harm both economies. Therefore, it is in their best interest to maintain peaceful relations. This concept is often referred to as the 'Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention', which suggests that no two countries with a McDonald's have ever gone to war, as the presence of the fast-food chain indicates a level of economic development and global integration that makes conflict unappealing.

Moreover, globalization promotes cultural understanding and empathy between nations. Through the exchange of ideas, information, and people, countries can learn more about each other's cultures, values, and perspectives. This increased understanding can help to dispel stereotypes, reduce prejudice, and foster mutual respect, making conflicts less likely. For example, international student exchange programmes or multinational corporations can bring people from different cultures together, encouraging them to understand and appreciate their differences.

However, it's important to note that while globalization can decrease the likelihood of interstate conflicts, it doesn't eliminate it entirely. Other factors such as territorial disputes, ideological differences, or power imbalances can still lead to conflicts. Furthermore, globalization can also exacerbate inequalities and tensions, potentially leading to conflicts. For instance, the spread of Western culture and values can cause resentment and backlash in some societies, potentially fuelling conflicts.

In conclusion, while globalization has the potential to decrease the likelihood of interstate conflicts through economic interdependence and cultural understanding, it is not a guaranteed solution. It is one of many factors that can influence international relations and conflict dynamics.