What models best explain the dynamics of evolving conflicts?

The best models to explain the dynamics of evolving conflicts are the Conflict Life Cycle Model and the Spiral Model.

The Conflict Life Cycle Model is a theoretical framework that describes the stages of a conflict from its inception to its resolution. It is based on the premise that conflicts, like living organisms, have a life cycle. They are born, grow, reach a peak, and then decline. This model is divided into five stages: latent conflict, perceived conflict, felt conflict, manifest conflict, and conflict aftermath.

In the latent conflict stage, the conditions for conflict exist, but the parties involved are not yet aware of it. The perceived conflict stage is when the parties recognise that their interests are incompatible. The felt conflict stage is when emotions are involved, and the parties feel anxious and tense. The manifest conflict stage is when the parties take actions that further the conflict. Finally, the conflict aftermath stage is when the conflict is resolved, and the parties deal with the consequences of the conflict.

The Spiral Model, on the other hand, explains how conflicts escalate and de-escalate. It suggests that conflicts tend to spiral out of control due to a series of retaliatory actions by the parties involved. Each party perceives the other's actions as a threat and responds with defensive measures, which the other party then perceives as a new threat, leading to a vicious cycle of escalation.

However, the Spiral Model also explains how conflicts can de-escalate. If one party breaks the cycle of retaliation and responds with conciliatory measures, it can lead to a series of reciprocal actions that gradually de-escalate the conflict. This model is particularly useful in understanding the dynamics of international conflicts, where actions and reactions can quickly spiral into full-blown wars.

Both models provide valuable insights into the dynamics of evolving conflicts. The Conflict Life Cycle Model helps us understand the stages of a conflict and how it develops over time. The Spiral Model, meanwhile, sheds light on the processes of escalation and de-escalation. By combining these models, we can gain a comprehensive understanding of conflict dynamics.